CMN Resolution No. 5,298/2026 and Ministry of Finance Technical Note: A New Regulatory Framework for Derivatives and Prediction Markets

On April 24, 2026, the regulatory landscape of Brazil’s financial and betting markets underwent a significant transformation with the publication of CMN Resolution No. 5,298/2026 and Technical Note SEI No. 2958/2026/MF, issued by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) of the Ministry of Finance.

1. CMN Resolution No. 5,298/2026: Restrictions in the Derivatives Market

With this Resolution, the Brazilian National Monetary Council (CMN) established rules governing the organization and operation of the derivatives market, setting principles of investor protection, transparency, and integrity. The regulation, which enters into force on May 4, 2026, aims to mitigate regulatory arbitrage and speculation harmful to the public interest.

It is important to note that the new Resolution fits within the existing regulatory framework on derivatives—CMN Resolution No. 4,966/2021 and Central Bank Circular No. 3,082/2002, the latter specifically addressing financial derivatives transactions in the domestic market. The new Resolution therefore operates alongside Resolution No. 4,966/2021 at a higher normative level, establishing guidelines, adjustments, and potential regulatory updates that guide or condition the application of the Central Bank’s sub-legal rules, requiring a systematic and harmonized interpretation.

Article 3 of the Resolution expressly prohibits the offering and trading in Brazil of derivative contracts whose underlying assets are related to:

  • Real sporting events and virtual online games, as defined in Law No. 14,790/2023
  • Political, electoral, social, or cultural events that lack representative economic-financial nature

The regulation exhaustively defines valid economic-financial benchmarks as: “price indices, interest rates, foreign exchange, credit, commodities, and other assets traded in organized markets” (Article 3, Sole Paragraph). The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), within its legal competence, may assess new indicators capable of underlying legitimate derivatives through supplementary regulation.

The prohibition has extraterritorial reach, also applying to derivatives traded abroad when offered within Brazilian territory, pursuant to Article 4 of the Resolution.

2. Classification of Prediction Markets as Fixed-Odds Betting

In parallel, the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) of the Ministry of Finance issued Technical Note SEI No. 2958/2026/MF, analyzing the legal nature of “prediction markets” (e.g., Kalshi and Polymarket). The technical analysis concluded that such operations, although sometimes presented as financial instruments or peer-to-peer (P2P) contracts, are functionally equivalent to the lottery modality of fixed-odds betting (FOB), established under Article 29 of Law No. 13,756/2018.

According to the legal opinion grounded in Law No. 14,790/2023 (Article 2), the characterization of fixed-odds betting requires the presence of three structural elements:

  1. The existence of a future and uncertain event
  2. The assumption of risk through financial expenditure
  3. The expectation of a prize determined by a multiplier factor (odds) defined at the time of contracting

The SPA argues that price formation through user interaction and early settlement mechanisms (cash-out) do not alter the essential nature of betting, as these are functionalities already provided for betting exchanges under SPA/MF Ordinance No. 1,231/2024.

In the electoral context, restrictions are even stricter. Resolution No. 23,735/2024 (Article 6, paragraph 7) of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) classifies the offering of bets or advantages linked to election outcomes as an electoral offense, potentially constituting abuse of economic power and illicit vote-buying.

3. Practical Consequences and Compliance

Under the new framework, platforms operating prediction markets outside the parameters of Law No. 14,790/2023 will be subject to access blocking in Brazil, as recommended by the SPA based on Article 17 of that law.

Institutions supervised by the CVM and the Central Bank must observe the need for:

  • Portfolio Review: Ensuring that no derivative product offered to local clients uses prohibited underlying assets
  • Monitoring of Foreign Offerings: Institutions intermediating global assets must verify whether offshore offerings violate Article 4 of Resolution No. 5,298/2026
  • Anti-Money Laundering Compliance: The operation of prediction markets outside SPA regulation poses high risk due to the lack of KYC controls and transaction monitoring required by SPA/MF Ordinance No. 1,143/2024. Under this Ordinance, institutions operating in prediction markets must implement AML/CFT (PLD/FTP) policies and controls (Articles 5–6), including client identification, qualification, and risk classification (KYC) (Articles 8 and 15), with risk-based verification. They must also monitor transactions, maintain records, and analyze suspicious activities (Articles 9 and 25). Finally, there is an obligation to report suspicious transactions to the Financial Activities Control Council (COAF) within one business day after analysis (Article 27).

The intersection between the new CMN regulatory framework and foreign exchange and prudential compliance obligations requires a comprehensive review of derivatives structures and digital assets held by financial institutions and foreign investors operating in Brazil.

References:

Galante Sociedade de Advogados

This text is for informational purposes only, does not replace individualized legal guidance, nor does it constitute the provision of legal services.

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